Have Oilers discovered great candidate to bring what Perry and Kane brought?

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I don’t yet know what to make of Trent Frederic, the new Edmonton Oilers power forward. As a result, I’m uneasy about his new eight-year deal for $3.85 million per year.

Are you in the same boat?

Frederic came here at a pretty price at the trade deadline but delivered little in the 2025 playoffs. In fact, at times during the playoffs I thought it would be best for the Oilers to bench Frederic, and said so several times in print and on podcasts.

Did you have that same thought?

So I’m worried, at least until I think about one key rule of player evaluation — that it’s ill-advised to rate a player based on his play when he’s injured, at least if that player, like Frederic, is in the prime of his career and there’s no good reason not to expect a full recovery.

It’s easy to forget such a rule when a player is one of the weakest two-way forwards on the team, as Frederic was for the Oilers in the 2025 playoffs, while struggling through his recovery from a high-ankle sprain.

Frederic contributed little on the attack and was also an iffy defender. On the plus side, he handed out plenty of hits. He was third on the Oilers for hits per 60 at 5-on-5 in the playoffs, with 20.6 per 60, behind only Zach Hyman at 28.3 per 60 and Vasily Podkolzin, 25.9.

Frederic was ahead of gritty Oilers forwards like Evander Kane, 17.6, Kasperi Kapanen, 17.2, Adam Henrique, 11.2, Mattias Janmark, 7.9, and Corey Perry, 7.3

But can you remember any of Frederic’s hits?  Few of them were intimidating or explosive, few won the puck for himself or his team. He lacked the pop in his stride to fully level opposing players. His physical play led to few scoring chances.

At the Cult of Hockey, we track hard plays at the net –the screens, jams, tips, hard charges and battles won — that help to create Grade A shots. For all his hitting, Frederic made just three such hard plays that led to Grade A shots all playoffs.

He made a total of three in 22 playoff games played, while Hyman made 24 in 15 games, Perry 28 in 22 games, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 24 in 22 games, Henrique 18 in 22 games and Kane 16 in 21 games.

But not to despair.

Again, remember that key rule of player evaluation. If an NHLer is suddenly playing weak hockey — and he’s got a history of playing strong hockey — the most likely cause for the drop in performance is injury. It’s the case about 80 per cent of the time, I reckon, though it’s hard to know because often injuries go unreported and players keep playing even while hurt.

I was recently reminded of this rule when I looked at the Oilers hard plays on Grade A shots in the 2024 playoffs. As strong as Corey Perry was this playoff season, he was weak last season. This was reflected in his lack of ability to force scoring chances.

In 19 playoff games last year, Perry made just two hard plays to help create Grade A shots, a far cry from his 28 in 22 games this year.

Last playoff season I advocated for Perry to take a spot in the pressbox. Based on his declining play last season, I was iffy about the Oilers bringing him back. But my Cult colleague Bruce McCurdy noted that it was a near certainty Perry was playing hurt in the 2024 playoffs. McCurdy recalled a major collision late in the regular season and said Perry wasn’t the same after that.

But Perry answered any doubt I had with a solid regular season in 2024-25, then an excellent playoff run.

If Perry can recover from injury and put up a great playoff run at age 39, Frederic is certainly capable of doing so at age 27.

Frederic is a big, tough, aggressive forward, with a willingness to fight and hit. The Oilers will need him at full throttle to win the Cup.

Tough physical players from Mark Messier to Kevin McClelland, from Raffi Torres to Chris Pronger, from Evander Kane to Zach Human have always been a huge part of any Stanley Cup playoff success the Oilers have had.

The team is short on such players just now, but not if Frederic steps up. I’m betting that Stan Bowman and the Oilers scouts did their homework this time and that Frederic is an excellent candidate to bring much of what Perry and Kane brought in the coming 2026 playoffs, should the Oilers make it that far, and should Frederic, this time, be healthy.

The Cult of Hockey

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