Will Oilers captain McDavid sign by training camp? Likely, but he will set the terms

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It may be the dog days of summer around here, but for all the fun social media photos of Leon Draisaitl’s big wedding to Celeste Desjardins in the south of France, with seemingly everybody who’s ever worn an Oiler jersey in 29’s 10 years here invited and attending, but for Kasperi Kapanen, who got married in Helsinki at the same time to his longtime partner Matleena.

But enough of the social news.

Here’s some hockey items questions:

(1) Will Connor McDavid be signed to a contract extension by training camp?

Here’s what we think we know:

Yes he will, with one year left on his $12.5 million AAV Oilers contract but it will be a three- or four-year extension. He’s not getting locked in for eight years like his best buddy Leon, whose new deal with the NHL’s highest AAV of $14 million starts this fall, even if Draisaitl and Celeste are on their honeymoon in Europe with Connor and wife Lauren. McDavid may take a haircut and not sign for $20.8 million AAV, which would be the 20 per cent high allowed a player on the overall $104 million cap in 2026-2027, but fans who see him signing for, say, $16 million a year to allow for the signing of other people? They’re dreaming.

Here’s what we do know:

McDavid will write in the dollar amount and the years and the team will say thank-you. No real need for negotiation. Any thought that he would leave Draisaitl high and dry and not resign is silly. Connor’s wife Lauren also has business interests here to keep 97 tied to our city for several more years.

Leon was making $8.5 million AAV and got his $5.5 million AAV bump. Should McDavid actually take a cent less than $18 million (a similar raise)? Don’t see it. The Athletic’s ace analytics guy Dom Luszczyszyn projects McDavid at $19.5 million AAV.

And, five more years of the tag-team together should be fine. That would still run 97 to his 33rd birthday. Wayne Gretzky left the Oilers for L.A. when he was only 27. If the Oilers haven’t won a Cup by 2030, McDavid may well look at New York and go to the Rangers for a new adventure like Mark Messier did (of course Messier had won five Cups by then). Before McDavid gets to the last year of an Oilers extension, if unhappy, he will let the Oilers know and they can trade him for a bundle.

(2) How much will Jake Walman get in a new deal, one season from UFA status?

Here’s what we think we know:

At a bargain $3.4 million AAV now, we see him in the $7-million range with the Oilers working on an extension right now because the seven million is what the Jets just gave their own second-pairing free-agent defenceman Neal Pionk, 30. They’re both second-pairing defencemen. Brandon Montour also got $7 million from Seattle as a free agent when 30 years old. A five-year extension seems about right for Walman.

Here’s what we do know:

The Walman add at the trade deadline from San Jose came out of left-field but it was a home run. He played the sixth-most minutes in the playoffs and looks like a second power-play unit point-man option this season. He can play left or right defence, just like Brett Kulak, a huge plus.

(3) With Stuart Skinner one year from UFA, are they working on signing him?

Here’s what we think we know:

They may be in more of a wait-and-see on how the season goes. While his barking critics want him gone because his playoff work the past two years has been up and down, and while he helped get them to the finals both years, he lost to Hall of Famer-in-waiting Sergei Bobrovosky, GM Stan Bowman remains a supporter. Bowman did bring in a different goalie coach, Peter Aubry, though, a tell that it’s not all roses. If Skinner only has a so-so regular season, Bowman should be looking at Isles’ Ilya Sorokin in a trade, and only him. Used to think Juuse Saros, too, but his game has dropped off in Nashville.

Here’s what we do know:

Skinner is vastly underpaid as NHL starters go at $2.6 million. Heck, Chicago’s backup Arvid Soderblom, with 17 wins in 86 career games, just got a two-year deal for more, at $2.75 million AAV, than Skinner, who has 98 regular-season wins. With Anaheim’s RFA Lukas Dostal recently getting $6.25 million with no playoff experience, this is surely Skinner’s UFA range, considering he only turns 27 in November. At Skinner’s age, it may be difficult to change his goalie style, but maybe Aubry will work on the mental side.

(4) Skinner didn’t get an invite to Canada’s 2026 Olympic orientation later this month in Calgary as they only went with their three 4 Nations goalies — Jordan Binnington, Adin Hill and Samuel Montembeault — but Evan Bouchard on defence and Zach Hyman and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins at forward did, along with 97, of course.

Here’s what we think we know:

Bouchard’s regular-season play last year didn’t get him any love for the 4 Nations team but he was once again excellent in the playoffs, where it counts most, so if he’s anywhere near that calibre in regular-season play from October through December, he’s on the team, for sure.

Hyman struggled early and fell from 54 to 27 goals, but he’s invited because he works so well with McDavid here and he’s a strong net-front power-play presence. His broken wrist in the playoffs killed the Oilers against Florida. Nugent-Hopkins clearly didn’t play well in the regular season, with just 49 points, but was very good in playoffs, putting up 20 points in 22 games until he broke his hand. Hockey Canada sees him as the perfect Swiss army knife.

Here’s what we do know:

Bouchard isn’t going to unseat Cale Makar on the top power-play unit but he would surely be running the second one from the point. No power-play defenceman shoots like Bouchard, who could also play in a second pair 5-on-5 with Josh Morrissey or Thomas Harley. And again, when the games get more important in May and June, Bouchard steps up.

Hyman is in very tough on the right side with Sam Reinhart, Mitch Marner and Brayden Point givens and Mark Stone and Seth Jarvis also coming off 4 Nations, but he’s a dog-on-a-bone player who can drop down the lineup with no complaints, and he can kill penalties.

Nugent-Hopkins plays with McDavid and Draisaitl on the power play, is on the first penalty kill unit, can play left wing or centre, but with 15 centres at Olympic orientation camp, the only way he makes this team is if he’s on the wing. The veteran has played for Hockey Canada as a junior, at the worlds and at World Cup of Hockey, but will have to get out of the gate with a much stronger offensive surge to sway management and beat out guys on the 4 Nations team.

CANCER FIGHT

Back when GM/coach Glen Sather was running the Oilers, he wanted every player associating themselves with a charity, like Kevin Lowe with the Christmas Bureau, like Glenn Anderson with the Cross Cancer Institute.

Anderson’s role with the cancer fight lives on four decades later through the Hall of Famer’s annual Cure Cancer golf tournament, which goes Thursday at the Derrick.

It all started back in 1985 when Acklands Grainger offered to donate a thousand dollars to the Cross for every goal that Glenn scored. Cal Nichols, who later would become the driving force for the Edmonton Investors Group, agreed to match the donation. Anderson scored 54 goals that season, so $108,000 to the Cross.

The golf tournament started after that with Nichols, using his business acumen to get sponsors for the first event, drew 154 players and raised $55,000. Last year’s event raised $1.85 million for the Cross.

“Now we’re at 40 years … think of that, and it’s raised over $20 million for the Cross,” said former Oilers equipment manager and head of the alumni Barrie Stafford, a cancer survivor himself.

“No Oiler player has been associated with a charity this long.”

“They’re having a Hot Stove this year at the tournament with Andy, Kevin and Jari Kurri, who’s coming in from Finland. Three Hall of Famers.”

Kevin Karius from Sports 1440 is moderating the Hot Stove.

This ‘n that: Tyler Wright, the former Oilers head of scouting and also player personnel from 2019-2023, is now working for the Kings as director of player personnel under his old Oilers boss Ken Holland … Fernando Pisani’s son Jaxon, 16, was a second-round WHL bantam draft pick by Everett but he’s also committed to his dad’s alma mater, Providence College, in a couple of years … Ex Oilers forward Jeff Skinner factors in as a second-line left wing in San Jose with young Will Smith as his centre, and defenceman john Klingberg almost surely on right side with Dmitry Orlov in a second pair … Myles Fee, who was Oilers’ video coach for seven years, has his name on the Stanley Cup the last two years in the same job with Florida … Phil Kemp made a guaranteed $175,000 to play in Bakersfield last season and he doubled it to play in Wilkes-Barre, the Penguins’ AHL farm team, after signing as a free agent there … Strange that Bakersfield starter Olivier Rodrigue, who wasn’t tendered a qualifying offer at season’s end but was a playoff backup here with Calvin Pickard hurt, hasn’t signed somewhere as a free agent. He’s only 25.