Forget splashing free agency cash, Maple Leafs should instead follow an NBA model

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It’s time for the Toronto Maple Leafs to get creative.

This off-season has the potential for things to go really off track with dreadful long-term ramifications. Not enough quality in the free-agent crop and too many teams with ample cap space seems like a recipe for disaster.

Even with the NHL’s salary cap expected to rise significantly over the next few years, vastly overpaying free agents like Conn Smythe winner Sam Bennett, fellow champion Aaron Ekblad or others could come back to bite a team down the line.

Back in 2016, a massive revenue spike stemming from a monster new television deal caused the NBA’s salary cap to take a Michael Jordan-sized leap from $70 million US to $94.1 million.

The nearly 35% spike allowed the Golden State Warriors to create a dynasty by signing superstar Kevin Durant, but it also resulted in some epic mistakes that hurt teams and might have outright crippled some had the cap not kept accelerating (it was $109 million just three years later).

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Timofey Mozgov, a centre who barely played, got $65 million over four years; Andre Drummond, who has never moved the needle, got $130 million over five, similar to what Nic Batum got to be an OK starter. Other duds abounded as teams seemed to feel that they simply had to take part in the bidding and come away with something to show their fans.

We could see similar events unfolding this summer in the NHL. Per Spotrac, 19 of the league’s 32 teams have at least $15 million in cap space available with 11 teams, including the Maple Leafs, boasting at least $23 million. There’s going to be a spending spree borne of a fear of missing out.

We’re not suggesting the Leafs skip the bidding altogether, that’s not realistic or practical. Some of their cap space will be spent on restricted free agent Matthew Knies, a key future cog. If John Tavares will take the team-friendly deal the rumour mill has suggested he’s willing to, bringing him back makes sense as well. As does retaining fellow veteran Max Pacioretty on a deal close to the minimum.

In this analysis, we’re assuming Mitch Marner signs somewhere else.

From here, we’d suggest instead of getting too involved in the free-agency frenzy, the Leafs should borrow a page or two from the playbook smart NBA teams utilize. While the NHL and NBA have differences in their salary-cap systems, some strategies are pretty universal.

You often see rebuilding or retooling basketball teams take on an unwelcome contract or two from a team itching to create cap space for prospects or draft picks. While the Leafs are in a contending and not rebuilding mode, they can still attempt a version of this strategy of weaponizing cap space.

Toronto doesn’t own a first-round pick until 2028 and has only three picks of any kind in 2026, plus a weak prospect pool.

Toronto could theoretically add some picks or prospects to potentially deal at the trade deadline next season for playoff help or could simply restock the cupboard, add an interesting young player or a useful forward who was making too much elsewhere.

Three teams (Colorado, Tampa Bay and Dallas) have under $5 million in cap space heading into the off-season and seven have less than $10 million. Surely there’s a way to take a contract or two off one of their hands, preferably for a player who might even help the Leafs a bit, but if not, the move could be for the sweeteners the team attaches.

In our scenario above, even with Knies, Tavares and Pacioretty signed, and with Ryan Reaves sent to the minors, the team would have around $13 million to spend to fill four roster spots. If they could convince Brad Marchand to take $7.5 million or so for five years and sign one of their restricted free agents for around $900,000, there’d still have nearly $5 million to absorb contracts from other teams (more if David Kampf or Calle Jarnkrok are moved in those deals or others).

It’s a strategy at least worth considering, even if it’s a lot more common in the NBA than in the NHL.

At this point, the Leafs should be open to anything and should be terrified of replicating past mistakes on July 1, be they of the NBA free agency or NHL free agency variety.

@WolstatSun