Goaltending, defence put Maple Leafs in fine spot heading into Buffalo

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Some Maple Leafs thoughts as the team heads into Buffalo on Friday night to take on the lowly Sabres, following a day off on Thursday for the Toronto group.

WINNING RECIPE

Show me a good goaltender and I’ll show you a good coach, the old hockey saying goes.

There’s no debating the job the Leafs goalies have done through 32 games, but there’s more to the defensive improvements than just the netminding as the Leafs have put together an impressive record of 20-10-2.

One statistic that Craig Berube can hang his hat on with the three-day Christmas break looming next week is goals against at five on five.

The Leafs have allowed 46 goals in that situation, the fewest in the NHL. That puts them on a pace for 118 allowed over 82 games.

During the Sheldon Keefe era, a total that low appeared only in the former coach’s dreams. In the three seasons before Keefe was let go in May, the Leafs allowed 168 goals, 142 and 182 respectively at five on five.

There’s greater structure in the defensive zone and part of that comes from improved connectivity involving all five players on the ice. It’s especially noticeable when the pairing of Chris Tanev and Jake McCabe goes over the boards. When we’re discussing the Leafs’ best players to date, Tanev is right there with the injured Anthony Stolarz, Mitch Marner and William Nylander.

And the Leafs’ save percentage of .910, thanks in large part to Stolarz and Joseph Woll, was behind only Winnipeg (.913) before Thursday.

The challenge, if it is that, for Berube comes in getting more offensive production out of the group. With Marner, Nylander, captain Auston Matthews and John Tavares at the helm, the Leafs are capable of scoring more.

With 61 goals at five on five, the Leafs were 23rd in the NHL before games on Thursday.

If that concerns you, consider that the Florida Panthers won the Stanley Cup this year after finishing 26th in five-on-five scoring during the 2023-24 regular season.

In the last 10 years, only one Cup winner — the Tampa Bay Lightning in 2020 — led the NHL in five-on-five goals for during the regular season.

MURRAY ON TAP?

Speculation grew on Thursday that veteran goalie Matt Murray will be recalled from the Toronto Marlies, possibly to get the start against the Sabres.

If the move is made, it likely wouldn’t be announced by the Leafs until Friday, giving the team one more day to save some money under the salary cap.

It’s likely that Dennis Hildeby would be sent back to the Marlies when Murray is recalled.

One way or another, the prevailing expectation is that Murray will get some time in the Leafs net during Stolarz’s recovery from a knee procedure.

It will cap an uplifting story when the 30-year-old Murray does return as his most-recent NHL game was on April 2, 2023, against Detroit.

After having bilateral hip surgery in September 2023, Murray missed most of last season before returning to play in three games for the Marlies. He then signed a one-year deal with the Leafs in July, determined to resurrect his NHL career.

CAPTAINS OF CHEMISTRY

Two former NHL captains really are doing their part in the Leafs’ success, aren’t they?

We’re looking at you, Max Pacioretty and Tavares.

There might have been more hope than expectations when the Leafs signed Pacioretty in the summer, given the 36-year-old’s recent history of injuries. Pacioretty hasn’t put the injury bug behind him as he has missed 13 games, but he has been effective when healthy.

Berube wants his forwards to be hard to play against in bringing a physical element. Pacioretty has taken to that with enthusiasm and is fifth among Leafs with 57 hits. He’s well on his way to breaking his career high, which is 119, done in 2018-19 with Vegas.

As for Tavares, not that we needed more proof of his strength and ability to win one-on-one battles, but we got it anyway in the final minutes of the Leafs’ win in Dallas on Wednesday. Along the boards, Tavares was engaged by the Stars’ Jamie Benn, Jason Robertson and Roope Hintz, but managed to get the puck to Nylander, who scored into an empty Dallas net to ice a 5-3 victory.

Tavares appears to have regained a half-step after perhaps falling off a bit in that area last season and the Leafs are better for it.

If not full lines, NHL coaches love to find forward pairs that click. Berube has an impactful duo in Tavares and Pacioretty. What’s more, if Berube decides in Buffalo to break up the top line of Matthews between Nylander and Marner, moving Nylander back with Tavares and Matthew Knies to the top line again should be seamless.

If it were up to us, though, we would give the No. 1 line, MNM if you will, another shot together.

One thing Berube absolutely can’t do: Tinker with his third line. The trio of Max Domi between Nick Robertson and Bobby McMann has served up some much-needed secondary scoring. Now, to keep that going in Buffalo.

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BY THE NUMBERS

The Leafs’ seven-game winning streak against the Stars is their longest active run against an opponent. Toronto has not lost to Dallas since Feb. 13, 2020, in a 3-2 decision at Scotiabank Arena. Just four Leafs who were in the lineup on Wednesday — Matthews, Marner, Nylander and Tavares — were in uniform for the Leafs that night. Morgan Rielly was nursing a broken foot … Woll is the third goalie in Leafs history to reach 30 career wins in 49 or fewer games. Jack Campbell hit 30 in 43 games with Toronto and Ed Belfour, like Woll, got there in 49 games … Nylander is the eighth player in Leafs history to record seven 20-goal seasons, joining Mats Sundin (13), Dave Keon (11), Ron Ellis (11), Darryl Sittler (nine), Matthews (eight), Frank Mahovlich (eight) and Rick Vaive (seven). Marner needs 10 goals in the remainder of this season to become the ninth Leaf to accomplish the feat.

tkoshan@postmedia.com

X: @koshtorontosun