5 key factors in Toronto Maple Leafs-Florida Panthers second-round series
Atlantic Division rivals will hook up in the second round of the NHL playoffs for the second time in three years.
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Daunting. Formidable. Difficult.
Use the adjectives you want — the Maple Leafs’ opponent in the second round of the 2025 Stanley Cup playoffs will present a much larger challenge than what the Ottawa Senators provided.
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5 key factors in Toronto Maple Leafs-Florida Panthers second-round series Back to video
That would be the defending Cup champion Florida Panthers, who many figured would have had a slog against the Tampa Bay Lightning in the first round. Instead, the Panthers vanquished their cross-state rivals in five games.
We take a look at five potential factors in the best-of-seven series between the Leafs — who had a full day off on Friday — and Panthers.
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DEPTH IN EXPERIENCE
Three former Panthers who have a Cup ring tucked away at home — goalie Anthony Stolarz, defenceman Oliver Ekman-Larsson and winger Steven Lorentz — each made a varying degree of contribution in the Leafs’ success in 2024-25.
That knowledge of enduring the hardships of the post-season is crucial. It doesn’t come close, though, to what the Panthers have in returning players after winning the Cup last spring.
Of the Panthers who were in the lineup to eliminate the Lightning in Game 5 on Wednesday, no less than 12 saw the ice in Game 7 of the final last June when Florida beat the Edmonton Oilers. That would have been 13 had defenceman Aaron Ekblad not been suspended for the finale against Tampa — a penalty that will carry through Game 1 against the Leafs.
And consider that among the players added by the Panthers is forward Brad Marchand, who won the Cup in 2011 with the Boston Bruins and has played in 162 playoff games in the National Hockey League.
The Leafs had the advantage in healed playoff scars against Ottawa. In this series, that has been completely flipped. The Panthers’ experience in winning a Cup after losing in the final in 2023 to Vegas beats winning two first rounds in three years, as the Leafs have done.
GOALTENDING AND SPECIAL TEAMS
The importance of goaltending and special teams get lumped together before every playoff series and with good reason: Any lack in either and you’re likely going home for the summer.
In goal, it’s akin to the classic Hollywood story: Can Stolarz, the former understudy in Florida, out-perform Sergei Bobrovsky, the man he backed up last season?
In the first round, interestingly, both Stolarz and Bobrovsky posted a .901 save percentage. That won’t bowl you over, but each goalie made the difficult saves when he had to, didn’t he?
Stolarz had an edge in high-danger save percentage at five-on-five with a mark of .862 against the Sens, while Bobrovsky posted an .800 mark versus the Lightning.
Will experience in the playoffs enter the conversation? Bobrovsky’s next NHL playoff game will be his 100th. Stolarz’s will be his eighth.
The Leafs finally got their power play to click in the post-season, going 6-for-17 against Ottawa. Florida was 4-for-16 against Tampa.
The Panthers killed off 18 of 20 minors against the Lightning while the Leafs killed off 12 of 15 against the Senators.
Special teams could be a saw-off, though the longer the series goes, the more crucial it will be for either team to have success. One power-play goal could be the difference in the end.
CORE ISSUES
No surprise that it was the Leafs’ nucleus of star players that wound up making the difference in Game 6 in Ottawa. For the Leafs to advance, that had to happen and it did.
In order, William Nylander, Mitch Marner, captain Auston Matthews and John Tavares led the Leafs in scoring against the Senators. For the Panthers, it was Sam Reinhart, Sam Bennett and Matthew Tkachuk in the top three against the Lightning.
In Reinhart and captain Aleksander Barkov, the Panthers have two of the three nominees for the Selke Trophy, as voted by the Professional Hockey Writers Association and revealed on Friday.
With Chris Tanev, an improved Jake McCabe and three solid pairings, the Leafs have a better defence group than what Toronto put on the ice in a second-round loss to Florida in 2023.
The Panthers, as usual, are formidable on the back end. Seth Jones led Florida D-men in ice time in the first round and was not on the ice for a goal against at five-on-five. Gustav Forsling is as reliable as they come and Ekblad will be eager to get going in Game 2 after serving his suspension.
IN YOUR FACE
The Leafs defence corps did a good job of keeping Senators forwards Brady Tkachuk and Ridly Greig out of Stolarz’s crease. There were some bumps every so often, but neither Sen made much of an impact in that regard.
The net-front task would have been tough for the Leafs had the Panthers been coming with Matthew Tkachuk and Sam Bennett, but the addition of Marchand adds another level of nastiness in how the Panthers go about their jobs.
The Toronto defence, to a man, will have to be on its toes to a greater degree than what was needed to beat Ottawa. That goes double for defending against the Panthers’ forecheck.
The Sens registered 144 hits in the first round, the most in the playoffs before the Winnipeg Jets and St. Louis Blues hooked up on Friday night, but how many stuck out? Few.
The Panthers, on the other hand, hit to hurt. How Matthews, Marner and Nylander handle the increase in tenacity will be paramount. We know that the Leafs don’t back down from anything.
For the Leafs to try to get Bobrovsky off his game, look for big Matthew Knies to battle for net-front space.
BEHIND THE BENCHES
While we take into account the Leafs’ advancement to the second round for the second time in three years, it’s uncharted waters for the group with Berube as coach.
Berube’s way of doing things — in an orderly fashion with little left to chance — has become a hallmark of the way the Leafs play. It’s new and it’s refreshing.
It won’t have Panthers coach Paul Maurice tossing and turning at night, however. In the history of the NHL, only Scotty Bowman has coached more games.
The Leafs worked hard to create a new identity under Berube this season. The Panthers, with a core that has won, have conducted their business in the same way for a few seasons now.
One guarantee in the series is that neither coach will be ruffled by anything that happens. Sure, both are capable of dropping F-bombs at any particular moment, but neither will be intimidated.
With all of this said, we think the Panthers are the favourite. Picking Florida in six games.
X: @koshtorontosun
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