Wake of Mitch Marner's potential exit would help define Treliving era with Maple Leafs

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Brad Treliving’s potentially defining moment as Maple Leafs general manager awaits.

If, as many expect, Mitch Marner decides to go to the open market in free agency and takes his talents to another National Hockey League team, what Treliving does in the aftermath will signify a rather large stamp on his tenure in Toronto.

The general belief is that Treliving and the Leafs will save between $13 million and $14 million US per season if Marner signs elsewhere. Whatever Matthew Knies gets on his next contract, that won’t factor into what cash Treliving will have in the event of a Marner departure.

There will be further savings, too, even if John Tavares re-signs with the Leafs.

There’s no way the Leafs should sign Tavares to anywhere near the $11-million salary cap hit he represented for each of the past seven seasons. If they can get Tavares at half that cost and for no more than two years, perhaps that’s OK. Anything beyond that, either in term or in dollars, would be risky for a player who will turn 35 in September and contributed just two goals in the Leafs final nine playoff games this spring.

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After several years of knocking on the 100-point door (including three seasons with 94 points or more), Marner finally got there in 2024-25, recording 102 points.

Any potential concern for Marner about his contract status wasn’t a factor as he set a personal-best with 75 assists, as well as his point total. Those 75 assists were third-most in the NHL, behind only Colorado’s Nathan MacKinnon and Tampa Bay’s Nikita Kucherov, who each had 84.

From within, we know that Marner’s production will not be replaced. How much work does Treliving have to do regarding the club’s forward group? As of today, after captain Auston Matthews and William Nylander, the next Leafs forwards on the highest-paid list are Max Domi ($3.75 million average annual value) and David Kampf ($2.4 million AAV).

Two years into his time with the Leafs, Domi hasn’t been able to put down roots at centre or on the wing, drifting between the two positions. He has 17 goals and 63 assists in 154 games with Toronto.

Kampf was a healthy scratch in the playoffs and could be a buyout candidate this off-season.

Knies will vault past Domi and Kampf contractually once he signs a new deal. He already has done so on the ice and, if you project him as a 40-goal scorer, there shouldn’t be much of an argument against that line of thinking, even if Marner is likely no longer on the Leafs’ No. 1 line.

Then you’re looking at Calle Jarnkrok, Scott Laughton and Bobby McMann. and restricted free agents Nick Robertson and Pontus Holmberg. On some nights, McMann and Robertson can throw an offensive scare into the opponent — on some nights.

If you’re top Leafs prospect Easton Cowan, you have to be pumped about the opportunity that awaits in camp.

So, the potential Marner savings. What does Treliving do with that wad of cash?

The hockey world knows that in free agency on July 1 (now just a short five weeks away), there will be no comparable forwards, taking into consideration talent and age, to Marner.

There would have been one had Mikko Rantanen not taken a circuitous route through Carolina before agreeing to a sign-and-trade with the Dallas Stars at the trade deadline in March. Rantanen got eight years with an average annual value of $12 million.

At the high end of the wingers who are headed for unrestricted free agency are Nikolaj Ehlers, Patrick Kane, Brad Marchand and Brock Boeser.

Kane and Marchand both can still contribute, but their best days in the NHL have come and gone. Kane, 36, had 21 goals in 72 games last season with the Detroit Red Wings; in 71 games with the Boston Bruins and Florida Panthers, the 37-year-old Marchand — who has been a force for the Panthers in the 2025 Stanley Cup playoffs — scored 23 goals.

Ehlers had 24 goals in 69 games with the Winnipeg Jets while Boeser had 25 in 75 games for the Vancouver Canucks a season after he scored a career-high 40 goals.

None of these players distribute the puck the way that Marner does from the wing, though few NHL players do.

Of free-agent centres, 34-year-old Matt Duchene led all with 82 points for Dallas. Next are 33-year-old Mikael Granlund, who had 67 points for the San Jose Sharks and Dallas, and Florida’s Sam Bennett, 29, who had a career-high 51 points for the Panthers.

As Leafs fans realize, Bennett brings elements that Toronto doesn’t have in abundance. Bennett also never has had more than 26 assists in an NHL season.

As far as trades go, could centre Marco Rossi of the Minnesota Wild or winger Jonathan Marchessault of the Nashville Predators be attractive to the Leafs? Perhaps.

The 23-year-old Rossi had 60 points in 82 games and is a restricted free agent.

Marchessault, 34, dipped to 21 goals with Nashville last season after he had 42 the year before with Vegas. At four years remaining and a $5.5-million AAV, though, you would think that any club acquiring him would want Nashville to retain some salary.

There’s the thought, too, that Treliving could sit on some cap space and use it to acquire a player at the deadline next March. Still, he’s going to want to have as strong a roster as possible coming out of camp.

Everything considered, it’s going to be fascinating to see which route Treliving takes if/when Marner is gone.

What comes as a result will help define the Treliving era in Toronto.

tkoshan@postmedia.com

X: @koshtorontosun