How the underdog Ottawa Charge can upset the first-place Montreal Victoire in PWHL playoffs

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It’s with good reason that the regular season champion Montreal Victoire are heavy favourites in a first-round PWHL playoff showdown with the third-place Ottawa Charge.

Before taking the last two meetings, Ottawa had only one victory to show for nine games against Montreal in club history.

So the Charge’s claim to the underdog role in a best-of-five set against the Victoire that begins Thursday night at Place Bell in Laval goes beyond the fact that it wound up with nine fewer points than the Victoire.

The sportsbooks are in line with the discrepancies between the two sides.

At FanDuel, Montreal is listed at -160 to win the series, which means a successful $100 wager on the Victoire pays just $62.50, while the same dollar amount bet on Ottawa, which is listed at +130, pays $130 should the Charge prevail.

But, as you might suspect, the Ottawa players believe they are perfectly capable of pulling off the upset.

“I honestly think that (despite) the whole standings thing, the league is very even,” said Tereza Vanisova, the Charge forward who, with 15 goals, finished tied for second in PWHL scoring — four behind Montreal’s Marie-Philip Poulin — and had a loop-leading 38 penalty minutes. “It’s almost like it doesn’t matter who you play, because the teams are so even and every game can be different.

“When fans look at the standings, we’re probably considered underdogs. But maybe that’s a good thing.”

While the Charge was 2-0-1-3 (wins, overtime wins, overtime losses, losses) against the Victoire, both teams finished the PWHL’s second season with the same number of regulation time victories.

But Montreal scored the second-most goals (77) compared to Ottawa’s 71, and the Victoire was the league’s stingiest team with 67 goals against.

The Charge surrendered 80, which was tied with the last-place New York Sirens for most allowed.

The Victoire and Charge had the two least productive power plays, with Montreal’s operating at a 15.5 percent success rate, as Ottawa’s was at 14.9 percent.

And Montreal had the second-best penalty killing at 82.6 percent, while Ottawa was fifth at 80.2 percent.

But over the last third of the season, the Victoire won just three of 10 games while the Charge won six of 10 — including two against Montreal — and limited opponents to just seven goals in the last five.

Last year, Toronto was knocked off in the opening round (by Minnesota) after finishing first in the regular season.

Here are a few keys for the Charge in its attempt to deliver a similar fate to Montreal.

As in most playoff series – goaltending

It has been more than seven weeks since Emerance Maschmeyer suffered a lower-body injury that was supposed to keep her sidelined for six, and there’s speculation Ottawa’s No. 1 puckstopper could be ready to make her return.

But at this point, there should be no rush to get her back between the pipes.

Maschmeyer is one of the best goalies in the world, but while she’s rusty, rookie Gwyneth Philips has been mostly stellar in making eight consecutive starts as her replacement.

“I don’t think she’s exceeded what we thought … I think we saw a lot of potential in her, and that’s why we drafted her where we did, but you never can predict what’s going to actually transpire,” coach Carla MacLeod said after Monday’s optional practice of Philips, a third-rounder who has posted an 8-5-1 record with a 2.11 goals against average and a .919 save percentage. “What’s impressed us the most is just her day-to-day habits and how she enters practice with an excitement, she enters games with an excitement. It’s infectious, how much she loves this game. And that little black puck, she loves that thing. She just wants it to pelt her all the time. The mentality that she brings is what I think helped her find her success so early in this league. She’s just a really skilled young goalie who matches her skill set to her work ethic, and I think she’s been rewarded for it.”

On top of that, Philips, who also tends goal for Team USA, has won her last three showdowns against Ann-Renee Desbiens, who is the No. 1 goalie for Team Canada and the Victoire.

Dim the power

Vanisova, who played for Montreal before being dealt to Ottawa at last year’s deadline, was asked the secret to beating her former team.

“Beat the first line,” she said with a laugh.

That’s not easy to do.

Poulin, who scored a hat trick against Ottawa on Jan. 29, combines with her spouse, Laura Stacey, and Jennifer Gardiner to form the most prolific unit in the league.

Together, they amassed 35 goals and 66 points this season.

But the Charge has recently assembled a shutdown unit of Emily Clark, Gabbie Hughes and rookie Mannon McMahon that should be on the ice as often as possible.

And the key will be to contain Poulin.

“It’s no different than every other game that you’ve played against her, and for every other team on the planet that’s ever played against her, you’ve got to know when she’s on the ice,” said MacLeod. “She’s a prolific hockey player, one of the best in the world. There’s no doubt about it. So, yeah, you’ve got to make sure you understand when a player of that caliber is on the ice.”

After that first line, the pendulum might swing in Ottawa’s favour.

“In my opinion, we have more depth than Montreal, so that could be one of our advantages,” said Vanisova. “We’ll see how it goes.”

The Jenner Factor

Ottawa is 13-1 when captain Brianne Jenner scores a goal, and she enters the playoffs as hot as she is hungry.

Five of her nine goals came in the team’s last nine games.

“I’m really excited for our fans, especially knowing who we’re playing … I think both fan bases are going to really get up for these games,” Jenner told reporters on a Zoom call before getting more personal. “As a player, it’s a dream come true to be able to play in a playoff series. This is a unique opportunity that I haven’t had in my career, to actually have a series to play. I’ve always been a little jealous of the NHL pros, getting to have that opportunity. So, I’m just thrilled and can not wait.”

Use any edge you can find

Having earned the right to pick its opening-round opponent, Montreal chose third-place Ottawa instead of fourth-place Minnesota for understandable reasons.

Shorter travel is legit, and so is wanting to avoid the Frost, which won the Walter Cup as the fourth-place team last season and has playoff experience, whereas Ottawa has none.

The Charge, meanwhile, didn’t take it as a slight. Even if it should have, just to get that extra edge in what should be a close series.

“Personally, I thought they were going to pick us, because we’re closer to them and they wouldn’t have to go all the way to Minnesota,” said Vanisova. “So they picked us, and it doesn’t matter. I’m excited to play Montreal.”

Did the decision add a little spice to the rivalry?

“I think there’s a lot of spice already,” said Jenner. “I don’t know if we needed more motivation. It’s everyone dream to win a Walter Cup, and maybe it adds a little chip on the shoulder, but I think we are coming in with that already.”

Said MacLeod: “I don’t think in the post-season you’re looking for any extra, external motivation, if I’m being honest. I think you’re going into it focusing on yourselves and what we need to do. I think the privilege for us in the last three games is actually that we saw all three other playoff teams. So I think for us, it’s really nothing to do with our opponent. It’s more just making sure that we’re continuing on the path that we’ve been on and making sure that we’re prepared and ready to go on Thursday.

“At the end of the day, we’ve got to make sure that we’re playing as hard as we can every shift, making life as difficult as we can every shift,” MacLeod added. “I don’t think there’ll be a team entering in the playoffs that wouldn’t have the same game plan that way. I think that’s everyone’s mission. So you’ve just got to do it a little bit better than your opponent and a little bit more consistently than your opponent. For us, it’s just embracing what we’ve developed this year and how we’ve been playing in the second half. We’re a fast hockey team. We’re a deep hockey team. You know, we’re finding ways to defend with a great structure that’s unified, and we’re finding ways to find the back of the net. So I think again, for us, it’s understanding who they are and what they do, but more importantly, it’s embracing what we do and who we are.”

THE PLAYOFF SERIES

Ottawa Charge (12-2-4-12) vs. Montreal Victoire (12-7-3-8)

(Best-of-five)

SCHEDULE

Game 1: Thursday, May 8

Ottawa at Montreal (Place Bell) 7 p.m.

Game 2: Sunday, May 11

Ottawa at Montreal (Place Bell) 2 p.m.

Game 3: Tuesday, May 13

Montreal at Ottawa (TD Place) 7 p.m.

*Game 4: Friday, May 16

Montreal at Ottawa (TD Place) 7 p.m.

*Game 5: Sunday, May 18

Ottawa at Montreal (Place Bell) 7 p.m.

* — if necessary

PREVIOUS GAMES

2024

Jan. 2: Montreal 3 at Ottawa 2 OTL

Jan. 27: Ottawa 1 at Montreal 2 OTL

Feb. 24: Ottawa 3 at Montreal 6 L

Mar. 10: Ottawa 4 at Montreal 2 W

April 7 – Montreal 2 at Ottawa 0 L

2024-25

Nov. 30: Ottawa 3 at Montreal 4 SOL

Dec. 6: Montreal 2 at Ottawa 1 L

Jan. 19: Ottawa 1 at Montreal 2 L

Jan. 29: Ottawa 1 at Montreal 4 L

Feb. 22: Montreal 1 at Ottawa 3 W

April 26: Montreal 2 at Ottawa 3 W