Kentucky Derby 2025 odds, post positions, favourites and analysis

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The Run for the Roses will return May 3, a year after a captivating photo finish, the closest three-horse photo finish at the Kentucky Derby since 1947. Twenty of the top 3-year-olds in the country will again break from the gate at Churchill Downs on the first Saturday in May, each chasing a place in racing history at the 151st edition of this classic.

Journalism, the Santa Anita Derby champion, is the morning-line favourite (3-1). He has won four straight races, three of which were graded stakes, at three different tracks and is backed by an elite pedigree (by Curlin, the American Horse of the Year in 2007 and 2008, and out of a dam tied to Nyquist, winner of the 2016 Kentucky Derby). With triple-digit speed figures, tactical versatility and consistent improvement, he fits the profile of a Derby winner. His only question mark is handling a large field for the first time.

Trainer Bob Baffert is set to make his return to the Derby after serving a three-year suspension, handed down when 2021 Kentucky Derby runner Medina Spirit failed a drug test. His two entries – Rodriguez and Citizen Bull – were among the top 10 in the points standings for this year’s Run for the Roses.

One horse from the European/Middle East Road to the Kentucky Derby and one from the Japanese Road to the Kentucky Derby also will be competing in this year’s first Triple Crown race. Admire Daytona won the UAE Derby and will be the representative from the European/Middle East Road. Luxor Café, a son of 2015 Triple Crown winner American Pharoah, won the Fukuryu Stakes in March to secure his spot in the Derby via the Japanese qualifying series.

Below, we break down the odds and post positions, with a few insights to help you handicap this year’s Derby contenders.

Post time: Saturday, 6:57 p.m. Eastern

TV: NBC

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No. 1 Citizen Bull (20-1)

Trainer: Bob Baffert

Jockey: Martin Garcia

Citizen Bull has amassed a commendable record, with notable victories in the Grade I American Pharoah Stakes, the Grade I Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and the Grade III Robert B. Lewis Stakes. Citizen Bull aims to become the third Kentucky Derby winner sired by Into Mischief, following Authentic (2020) and Mandaloun (2021).

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No. 2 Neoequos (30-1)

Trainer: Saffie A. Joseph Jr.

Jockey: Flavien Prat

Neoequos – in the field after Built decided to run in the Grade II Pat Day Mile on the Kentucky Derby undercard – has tactical speed, consistent graded stakes form and sharp recent workouts. Plus, he is an overachiever who could be among the first four finishers in his first race away from Gulfstream Park. Neoequos has twice earned third-place finishes at double-digit odds in graded stakes races, and he has two other second-place finishes at odds of 5-1.

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No. 3 Final Gambit (30-1)

Trainer: Brad H. Cox

Jockey: Luan Machado

Final Gambit is trying to make a name for himself, but he has never run on dirt and his pedigree suggests he is more suited for the traditional 1½ miles of the Belmont Stakes rather than the 1¼ miles of the first leg of the Triple Crown. Still, Cox’s mounts ridden by Machado have won 40 percent of their races in the past 60 days, returning a profit of $1.79 for every $2 wagered to win, per Brisnet.

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No. 4 Rodriguez (12-1)

Trainer: Bob Baffert

Jockey: Mike E. Smith

Rodriguez secured his place in the Derby with a victory in the Grade II Wood Memorial, leading from start to finish and drawing off to win by 3½ lengths. His sire, Authentic, is known for producing versatile runners, and Rodriguez’s demonstrated early speed positions him as a potential pacesetter in the Derby. Among horses in this field, only No. 8 Journalism and No. 1 Citizen Bull have earned a higher Brisnet final speed figures than Rodriguez.

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No. 5 American Promise (30-1)

Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas

Jockey: Nik Juarez

American Promise, sired by 2018 Triple Crown winner Justify out of Tapit mare Tapella, boasts a pedigree rich in stamina and classic distance capabilities. He showed some of that when he dominated the ungraded Virginia Derby, completing 1⅛ miles at Colonial Downs in 1:46.41, a track record. However, the two times he was entered against graded stakes competition, he didn’t finish better than fifth.

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No. 6 Admire Daytona (30-1)

Trainer: Yukihiro Kato

Jockey: Christophe Lemaire

Admire Daytona has already proved his mettle internationally with a tenacious victory in the Grade II UAE Derby over 1 3/16 miles, but the winner of that prep race hasn’t gone on to claim the Kentucky Derby in 20 tries.

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No. 7 Luxor Café (15-1)

Trainer: Noriyuki Hori

Jockey: Joao Moreira

Luxor Café, a Japanese-based colt sired by Triple Crown winner American Pharoah, dominated the Japan Road to the Kentucky Derby with victories in the Hyacinth and Fukuryu Stakes. The recent crop of horses from Japan has appeared to get stronger and stronger, and Luxor Café will look to improve on Forever Young’s third-place finish last year.

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No. 8 Journalism (3-1)

Trainer: Michael McCarthy

Jockey: Umberto Rispoli

The Curlin colt impressed with a 3½-length victory in the Grade II Los Alamitos Futurity and followed up with solid wins in the Grade II San Felipe Stakes and Grade I Santa Anita Derby. He’s also won his third race off a layoff before, and McCarthy has a positive return on investment in those scenarios (18 cents for every $2 wagered over 72 races, per Brisnet).

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No. 9 Burnham Square (12-1)

Trainer: Ian R. Wilkes

Jockey: Brian Hernandez Jr.

Burnham Square, sired by Liam’s Map – a notable speedster and Grade I Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile winner – needs more stamina from his pedigree to convince me he can handle the Derby’s 1¼-mile distance. His ability to close from behind, as seen in the Grade III Holy Bull Stakes, makes him a fringe contender if the pace of the race is swift, but even then he probably hangs on for a board hit ​rather than crossing the wire first.

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No. 10 Grande (20-1)

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Jockey: John R. Velazquez

Grande has shown consistent improvement, culminating in a 101 Brisnet speed figure during his runner-up finish in the Grade II Wood Memorial. Trained by Pletcher, a two-time Derby winner, Grande should benefit from experienced guidance, while his tactical running style will allow flexibility in positioning during the race, which can be crucial in navigating the Derby’s large field.​

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No. 11 Flying Mohawk (30-1)

Trainer: D. Whitworth Beckman

Jockey: Joseph D. Ramos

Flying Mohawk has two wins and two seconds in six starts, earning $295,800. He also has demonstrated versatility, winning on turf and synthetic surfaces. His pedigree leans heavily toward turf influences, with sire Karakontie excelling on grass and offering less success in producing dirt runners.

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No. 12 East Avenue (20-1)

Trainer: Brendan P. Walsh

Jockey: Manny Franco

East Avenue announced his presence with a gate-to-wire victory in the Grade I Breeders’ Futurity. Then he faltered badly in the Grade I Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (finishing ninth out of 10 horses as the favorite) and again in the Grade II Risen Star Stakes (10th out of 12 horses as the favorite). He got back on track with a second-place finish in the Grade I Blue Grass Stakes, albeit with a below-par final speed figure (97) for this upcoming event. Perhaps that’s a signal his troubled times are behind him, but his wins have only occurred when he has been loose on the lead, something unlikely to happen Saturday.

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No. 13 Publisher (20-1)

Trainer: Steven M. Asmussen

Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.

Publisher’s pedigree combines American Pharoah’s proven stamina – which won the sire a Triple Crown – with Proud Citizen’s influence, suggesting classic potential. Yet this colt is 0 for 7 for his career, failing to win races ranging in distance from seven furlongs to 1⅛ miles. Only 12 maidens have run in the Kentucky Derby since 1937, and if Publisher manages to win, he would become the fourth maiden to do so, following Buchanan (1884), Sir Barton (1919) and Brokers Tip (1933).

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No. 14 Tiztastic (20-1)

Trainer: Steven M. Asmussen

Jockey: Joel Rosario

Tiztastic, a dark bay colt by Tiz the Law out of Keesha (by Tapit), brings a notable blend of speed and stamina to his Kentucky Derby aspirations. His victory in the Grade II Louisiana Derby showcased his ability to handle longer distances and competitive fields. Unfortunately, Tapit has never produced a Derby winner, and Asmussen is 0 for 26 with Derby contenders, although he does have three second-place finishes and two thirds.

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No. 15 Render Judgment (30-1)

Trainer: Kenneth G. McPeek

Jockey: Julien Leparoux

Render Judgment doesn’t appear fast enough to compete in this race – his lifetime high Brisnet speed figure is 96, well short of the 103 typically needed to win races of this caliber – and his fifth-place finish in the Grade I Blue Grass Stakes, even at steep odds, indicates he may struggle against stronger contenders.

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No. 16 Coal Battle (30-1)

Trainer: Lonnie Briley

Jockey: Juan P. Vargas

Coal Battle gained attention with a win in the Grade II Rebel Stakes; however, his Brisnet final speed figure in his next race, the Grade I Arkansas Derby, declined by five points. You want to back a colt in improving or peaking form at the Kentucky Derby, not one that took a sizable step back in his final prep race.

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No. 17 Sandman (6-1)

Trainer: Mark Casse

Jockey: José L. Ortiz

Sandman’s pedigree, featuring Tapit and Distorted Humor, suggests he has the stamina and class to excel in the Kentucky Derby, and he emerged as a serious contender with his victory in the Grade I Arkansas Derby. Thanks in part to a fast pace in that race, he launched a rally around the far turn and stayed on strong to prevail by 2½ lengths. He also achieved a career-best Brisnet final speed figure (101), albeit under favorable conditions.

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No. 18 Sovereignty (5-1)

Trainer: William I. Mott

Jockey: Junior Alvarado

Sovereignty’s pedigree includes notable sires such as Empire Maker (the grandsire of 2015 Triple Crown winner American Pharoah), Seeking the Gold (who sired 91 stakes winners, including five champions) and Seattle Slew (who won the Triple Crown in 1977), indicating strong genetic potential for classic distances.

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No. 19 Chunk of Gold (30-1)

Trainer: Ethan W. West

Jockey: Jareth Loveberry

Chunk of Gold has a closing running style but has not won on dirt in two tries. He has, however, nabbed two second-place finishes at odds of 10-1 and 40-1 in his past two starts. Perhaps that means he is an overachiever ready to take a spot among the top four, but he seems overmatched by this field.

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No. 20 Owen Almighty (30-1)

Trainer: Brian Lynch

Jockey: Javier Castellano

Owen Almighty, by Speightstown, was initially pulled from Kentucky Derby contention after finishing sixth in the Grade I Blue Grass Stakes in early April. But his ownership had a change of heart and decided to make a run for the roses after all. Owen Almighty’s pedigree is balanced enough for a classic win, even if his résumé suggests he should be overmatched.