SIMMONS SAYS: Maple Leafs have to reverse their sorry record in series openers

Not sure that I buy the narrative that this year’s Stanley Cup playoffs will impact Marner’s pending free agency a whole lot. Fact is, he’s going to get paid lots no matter what happens in the post-season. Lots of money, lots of term. If he chooses to stay in Toronto or the Leafs choose to keep him, they will pay him somewhere between Nylander and Matthews. If he chooses to leave, he’ll get one fewer contract year, but more money annually. Economically, there’s no lose here for the 100-point Marner. It’s win-win either way … Dmitri Yushkevich, one of the great under-appreciated defencemen in Leafs history, used to tell a story about playoff time. Apparently, he would put his tooth brush away. He’d say so long to dental hygiene for however long the playoffs lasted. He wanted to carry an odour around with him at playoff time, which made being around the front of the Leafs net all that more uncomfortable … The Leafs don’t have a natural matchup for Brady Tkachuk. Marner and Nylander are the right wingers on the first two lines to likely play opposite Tkachuk and linemates Tim Stutzle and Claude Giroux. They’re not built to take on a Tkachuk type. The Leafs will need defencemen Chris Tanev or Brandon Carlo on the ice opposite Tkachuk who will spend almost as much time in the Toronto goal crease as Anthony Stolarz … Why the Leafs are more equipped to succeed in the post-season than ever before: 1) They have Tanev and Jake McCabe beside him to supply the best shutdown pair on the blue line since the days of Yushkevich. 2) Stolarz is the best technical goaltender they’ve had in the Shanahan era and he’s enormous in size. 3) Up front, they are heavy and fast on left wing with Matthew Knies and Bobby McMann, which they haven’t been before; Marner and Nylander are playing the best hockey of their lives; and Matthews is playing the most complete hockey he’s ever displayed. 4) Carlo is a veteran of 72 Stanley Cup playoff games on defence the past six seasons. The Leafs have played 37 games in that same time. Carlo has quieted down partner Rielly’s game, which should be invaluable in the battles ahead … Rielly was looking like a liability prior to the deal for Carlo … When Craig Berube’s St. Louis Blues won the Stanley Cup in 2019, they were unspectacular on the power play and penalty-killing during the season. But they did kill penalties at 81.5% during the playoff season. Over the past 10 years, you pretty much need to be above 80% when down a man if you’re going to win the Cup … Darryl Sutter told me this years ago: Lousy penalty-killing will cost you a playoff series. A lousy power play can be annoying, but it will not cost you a series. The Leafs had horrible penalty killing in the playoffs in the years that Mike Babcock was coaching in Toronto.

In his 12th NHL season, Nikita Kucherov has won his third scoring title: Those who have won three or more Art Ross Trophies include Wayne Gretzky, Mario Lemieux, Jaromir Jagr, Connor McDavid, Guy Lafleur, Phil Esposito, Stan Mikita, Bobby Hull and Gordie Howe. Not a bad list to be part of for the rest of your life … Kucherov led the NHL in power-play points, was third in even-strength points and finished 31 points ahead of anyone on his Tampa Bay team. That’s among the many reasons he got my Hart Trophy vote for MVP, along with being the best passer in hockey. Leon Draisaitl, who was on my ballot, finished six points better than McDavid in scoring for Edmonton … Senators GM Steve Staios used to work for the Leafs in player personnel. His current assistant, Dave Poulin, used to work front office for the Leafs in a variety of roles. Sens coach Travis Green used to play for the Leafs. In other words, front office-wise, the Senators are a Leafs farm team … Never before have the Bruins, Rangers, Blackhawks and Red Wings — the four American Original Six teams — all missed the playoffs in the same season. This is Boston’s first time missing in nine years. Detroit has missed nine years in a row … Miro Heiskanen is a top-four defenceman in the NHL. If he’s well enough to play for Dallas, the Stars have a shot against the Colorado Avalanche. If Heiskanen isn’t at full strength, look for Colorado to win Round 1 … Last year, the Stars got to the conference final relying on Heiskanen and Tanev on their blue line … My first-round picks: Toronto over Ottawa; Tampa over Florida; Washington over Montreal; Carolina over New Jersey; Winnipeg over St. Louis; Colorado over Dallas; Vegas over Minnesota; Edmonton over Los Angeles … Yell at me later for being wrong … Never tell Jordan Binnington he can’t do something. He beat Connor Hellebuyck in the 4-Nations final. Can longshot St. Louis beat Winnipeg in a best-of-seven series? Maybe. The Jets finished the season by going 14-6 in their last 20 games. The Blues were better at 15-3-2 … Of all GM Brad Treliving has accomplished in two years on the job, nothing is more important than his rebuild of the Leafs defence. He signed Tanev, Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Simon Benoit as free agents, traded for Carlo, and re-signed McCabe and Rielly long-term. This is a far cry from playoff rosters that included Jake Gardiner, Matt Hunwick, Martin Marincin, Connor Carrick, Nikita Zaitsev, Travis Dermott, Tyson Barrie, Justin Holl and Erik Gustafsson … I’m don’t cheer for anybody very often, but I’m rooting for the San Jose Sharks to get the first pick again in the NHL draft. I want to see Matthew Schaefer, the likely first overall choice, playing defence on a team with Macklin Celebrini and Will Smith. That would be fun to watch for about the next decade … There aren’t many reasons to believe Edmonton can beat Los Angeles in Round 1. So here’s my simple reason why: Edmonton has McDavid and Draisaitl. McDavid is third all-time in playoff points per game, behind Gretzky and Lemieux and Draisaitl is fifth, just ahead of Mark Messier … Tip of the toledo to Logan Couture of Guelph, whose career is over after 15 impressive seasons in San Jose, including two giant playoff runs with the Sharks … Tough weekend for television viewers: There the Stanley Cup playoffs are on. The NBA playoffs are on. Wrestlemania is on. The Tournament of Champions, Food Network, are on … Funny how things turn out. That was former Leafs GM Kyle Dubas sitting next to current Leafs GM Treliving at the Greg Millen memorial service on Thursday in Peterborough. What a special turnout, a hockey who’s who, for a special guy gone too soon. Among the speakers: Chris Cuthbert, Gary Green, Colin Campbell, Mark Kirton and John Shannon. And Millen’s four kids were spectacular talking about their dad.

It is early, but two things are apparent in the baseball season: One, this is the weakest American League we’ve seen in years. Not a great team to be found anywhere. And two, this rather odd Blue Jays team, flaws and all, should contend … The Jays’ starting pitching has been close to superb through 20 games. They’re second in the league in ERA, second in innings pitched, second in batting average allowed, second in WHIP. The hold-your-breath bullpen of a year ago has been replaced by a group that is fifth in ERA, second in saves, first in WHIP, second in average relinquished … And the Jays are doing all of this without much power. They are 14th out of 15 in the AL in home runs … Was thinking of the top-five Jays starting pitchers of all-time. My list has 1. Roger Clemens; 2. Roy Halladay; 3. Dave Stieb; 4. Jimmy Key; 5. Juan Guzman and after that, Pat Hentgen, Kevin Gausman and Jim Clancy. My top-five Jays power hitters of all time: 1. Carlos Delgado; 2. Jose Bautista; 3. Edwin Encarnacion; 4. George Bell; 5. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. … The White Sox have picked up where they finished last season, with a 4-15 record to start in the AL Central. They could win fewer than the 41 games they won a year ago … Alex Anthopoulos’ Braves have averaged 94 wins a year n his seven seasons in Atlanta and have never missed the playoffs — until possibly this year, where they’ve started at 6-13. The Jays have averaged 81 wins a season during Anthopoulos’ time in Atlanta … There was no professional baseball in Calgary before Russ Parker brought an Expos farm team to Alberta and later purchased a triple-A team and moved it from Salt Lake City. So explain to me: Why isn’t Parker in the Canadian Baseball Hall of Fame? … Which is a lot like asking why The Guess Who and Joe Cocker aren’t in the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame.

The junior hockey trial that has already shocked the nation and caused upheaval with Hockey Canada begins in London, Ont., this week. Reports will be juxtaposed with the Stanley Cup playoffs and junior hockey playoffs … I feel fortunate to have covered four rounds of the Battle of Alberta and four rounds of the Battle of Ontario and I’m not sure I’ve ever seen better hockey up close and played with more intensity than in those series. Especially the ones in the West. The night I’ll never forget: When Steve Smith scored into his own net and Edmonton’s dynasty meant four Cup wins in five years instead of five Cups in a row … So much has been made of Canadian teams not winning championships, but consider this: In a nine-year period from 1982-90, a Canadian team played for the Stanley Cup in nine consecutive seasons. In two of those years, two Canadian teams played against each other for the Cup. Since then, in the 35 subsequent years, the seven Canadian teams have played for the Stanley Cup seven times, winning one. That was Montreal beating Los Angeles in 1993 … The NBA first-round matchups I’ll closely tune in to: Clippers-Nuggets; Bucks-Pacers; Lakers-Timberwolves … No, that isn’t Jesse Barfield throwing from the Blue Jays outfield. It’s Addison Barger. But why do the Jays do this: He had three outfield assists Friday night and wasn’t starting Saturday afternoon. The Jays should fire their computers … This is the 24th world women’s hockey championship, the 23rd time Team Canada will play Team USA for gold … Alex Ovechkin passed Gretzky. On Friday, Marie-Philip Poulin passed Hayley Wickenheiser in world championship scoring. The impossible suddenly is possible in the world … Happy birthday to Don Mattingly (64), Randy Carlyle (69), Kelly Olynyk (34), Lu Dort (26), Maria Sharapova (38), Ochai Agbaji (25), Joe Mauer (42), Patrick Laine (27), Jose Cruz Jr. (51), Troy Palomalu (44), Brent Seabrook (40), Jackie Bradley Jr. (35), Luke Kuechly (34) and Candace Parker (39) … And hey, whatever became of Nikolai Borschevsky?