Champions League place frenzy the last chapter of EPL season with twists and turns

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One of the stranger English Premier League seasons is limping to an end after weaving more unexpected storylines than anyone could have predicted back in August.

Manchester City had won an unprecedented four titles in a row and were odds-on favourites to get a fifth. They go into this weekend 18 points back of title-winners Liverpool.

Liverpool saw a shock departure of manager Jurgen Klopp and bought zero first-team players in the off-season ahead of a campaign that was supposed to be a transition for new manager Arne Slot. They won their 20th first-division title, tying Manchester United for the most in English history.

Manchester United fired their manager in the fall and brought in one of Europe’s hottest young managers, Ruben Amorim. Their form got woefully worse. They are in 16th place, a whopping 44 points off the top spot. And yet they could still qualify for the Champions League.

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Similarly puzzling, Spurs actually are MORE disappointing that United, sitting in 17th, the last spot above relegation, they’ve stuck with their decaying and embattled manager Ange Postecoglu and yet they could still qualify for the Champions League as they play United in the Europa League final on Wednesday with the winner gifted a berth in the world’s top club tournament next season.

The weirdness is exacerbated with Liverpool being so far ahead that the title race was pretty much over in March — as was the relegation fight.

In fact, there was no fight in the three promoted clubs, Ipswich, Leicester and Southampton — who’s draw last week helped them avoid equalling Derby County’s record as the worst Premier League side ever as they climbed to 12 points on the season, besting Derby’s 11 in 1995-96.

Even stranger, the Saints got that point with a 0-0 against four-time running champs Manchester City, who are still fighting for a Champions League spot.

It’s the second season in a row that the three teams that came up yo-yoed straight back down. Thoughts and prayers for Leeds, Burnley and either Sheffield United or Sunderland, who meet in the playoff final next week with the winner joining the other two coming up to the top flight.

And yes, that’s the only drama left these last two weeks. England has been granted a fifth automatic spot (and, with either Manchester United or Spurs joining them, that will be six EPL teams in the Champions League next season).

At the moment, Nottingham Forest and Aston Villa are on the outside in sixth and seventh in the table, but are within striking distance of everyone but Liverpool.

Arsenal looks safe, but still needs one point to officially qualify, and they play Newcastle, which has just one loss in its past nine games.

Conversely, the Gunners have a single win in their past five games. If Arsenal loses, Newcastle will pass the Gunners and move up to second, but Arsenal plays Southampton in its final match.

You have Manchester City in fourth with 65 points, Chelsea in fifth with 63 points, tied with Aston Villa who sport a significantly worse goal difference, then Forest a point behind with 62.

Those teams have some interesting fixtures this weekend. Firstly, Villa and Chelsea get the festivities started early on Friday, playing Spurs and United, respectively. Then City are playing in the FA Cup Final on Saturday, the only match on a showcase day, against Crystal Palace. City then gets their league game out of the way on Tuesday against Bournemouth. Forest plays on Sunday at West Ham.

It’s a fool’s game to try and predict how anything will go this season, as evidenced by Southampton drawing Manchester City last week.

But if you were to guess, you’d think Villa and Chelsea win, Arsenal and Newcastle draw. If Nottingham Forest can get a win against the Hammers and, assuming City beats Bournemouth, then going into the last weekend you’d have City with 68 points, Newcastle with 67, Chelsea and Villa tied at 66 (but Chelsea up on goal difference) and then Nottingham Forest with 65.

That’s five teams within three points of each other on the final day with two of them missing out on Champions League.

Of note, Chelsea plays at Nottingham Forest on the last day of the season.

Up for the Cup

Saturday is reserved to showcase the FA Cup final between Manchester City and Crystal Palace.

Ordinarily, you’d think this was a slam dunk for City. On one hand, they’ll still want to salvage something with a piece of silverware from a massively disappointing season. But on the other, they’ve struggled for consistency all season and, just last year, tripped up in the final losing to a moribund Manchester United squad.

Crystal Palace have far fewer expectations and, while they’re only in 12th place, they’ve had some stretches this season where they’ve looked like they can beat anyone on the day. They’ve only won once in their past four, but prior to that had only lost once in seven games.

Their standing is stilted by them not getting their first win until the ninth game. But they’ve managed draws with Chelsea, Arsenal and City, though they also lost 5-2 to Pep Guardiola’s squad in April.

FA Cup final day is still a thing in England, a cultural touchstone like the Grand National horse race, strawberries and cream at Wimbledon or a summer test match in cricket. But it has lost some lustre around the world as international supporters are obsessed with the league.

Everyone loves an underdog story, though, and Crystal Palace winning would certainly make a better story. They’ve been playing since 1905, but have never won the FA Cup. In fact the only thing they’ve ever won is the league, but only at lower divisions, winning promotion to the league above. Prior to this season, they’ve made the FA Cup final just twice in 120 years, losing to Manchester United both times, most recently in 2016.

This week’s slate

Friday: Aston Villa vs Tottenham; Chelsea vs Manchester United.

Saturday: FA Cup final: Manchester City vs. Crystal Palace.

Sunday: Everton vs Southampton; West Ham vs Nottingham Forest; Brentford vs Fulham; Leicester vs Ipswich; Arsenal vs Newcastle.

Monday: Brighton  vs Liverpool.

Tuesday: Crystal Palace vs Wolves; Manchester City vs Bournemouth.