Home teams get it done, but only one will cover in NFL conference championship picks

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WASHINGTON COMMANDERS (12-5) at PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (14-3)

LINE: Philadelphia by 6

In two games against the Commanders’ 30th-ranked run defence, Saquon Barkley rushed for 298 yards and four touchdowns. Last week, the Lions would have advanced had they kept pounding the rock with Jahmyr Gibbs (14 carries, 105 yards) rather than allowing Jared Goff and his fastest receiver to throw the ball into the waiting arms of gracious Washington defenders. The Commanders won’t stop Barkley on Sunday, either, and Jayden Daniels is going to be under intense pressure, especially from DT Jalen Carter, who will be as unstoppable as Barkley with Washington missing exceptional OG Sam Cosmi. The teams split the season with the Eagles winning 26-18 at home Week 11 and the Commanders handing Philly its only loss since September, 36-33, with Kenny Pickett replacing the injured Jalen Hurts. Noteworthy about that one: Daniels threw for five TDs against the Eagles No. 1-ranked defence. The Commanders have had an incredible turnaround season and it should end here, but in getting six points, I trust the combo of Daniels and coach Dan Quinn more than Hurts and Nick Sirianni.

TAKING: WASHINGTON +6

Eagles 31, Commanders 27

BUFFALO BILLS (13-4) at KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (15-2)

LINE: Kansas City by 1.5

Just about everyone who doesn’t have a Kansas City zip code would love to see the Bills finally get back to the Super Bowl game for the first time since they lost four of them in a row three decades ago. And, really, who doesn’t love Josh Allen for all he can do on the field and the nice guy he appears to be off of it? But by now, don’t we know better than to bet against Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes in the big game? The Bills and Allen have had an incredible season, but Buffalo was 5-4 on the road this season and, while Sean McDermott’s gang did beat the Chiefs 30-21 at Orchard Park in Week 11, the Chiefs appear to have a date with destiny. They can be just the fourth team to make it to three straight Super Bowls in a row and the feeling here is they’ll get it done because A) in Mahomes’ career, they’ve never scored fewer than 25 points in consecutive post-season games (they beat the Texans 23-14 last week) and Travis Kelce showed new life in his aging legs with seven catches for 117 yards in the divisional round matchup. Either way, it will come down to the wire, just like the Bills-Ravens game last week, and this time Buffalo won’t be fortunate enough to have the opposing tight end drop a ball in the end zone in the final minute.

TAKING: KANSAS CITY -1.5

Chiefs 28, Bills 24

Picks records

DON BRENNAN

LAST WEEK: 1-2-1

BEST BET LAST WEEK: 1-0

SEASON: 138-134-4

BEST BET SEASON: 30–24-1

DAN BILICKI

LAST WEEK: 0-3-1

SEASON: 138–134-4

BEST BET LAST WEEK: 0-1

BEST BET SEASON: 9-10

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