WEEK 16 PICKS: Bengals, Lions and Eagles are locks among 11 favourites that will cover

Article content

Best Bets

CLEVELAND BROWNS (3-11) at CINCINNATI BENGALS (6-8)

LINE: Cincinnati by 7.5

Browns have taken Cincinnati’s weak (27th ranked) pass defence out of the equation by benching Jameis Winston after he threw three interceptions last week. They’ll turn to Dorian Thompson-Robinson, who has one TD pass and seven picks in 12 career games. Joe Burrow leads the league in passing yards and TD tosses, and if it was a boxing match he’d KO DTR four seconds into it. Bengals have what NFL.com figures is a 6% shot at a playoff spot. Browns must be trying to improve their draft position.

TAKING: CINCINNATI -7.5

Bengals 30, Browns 10

DETROIT LIONS (12-2) at CHICAGO BEARS (4-10)

LINE: Detroit by 6.5

A colossal coaching mismatch. Dan Campbell is tough-talking his Lions into battling through three season-ending injuries to key personnel, while interim Bears boss Thomas Brown is out of his element, as Chicago has been outscored 68-25 and looked worse in his two games at the helm. Jahmyr Gibbs averaged 9.7 yards a carry and 8.5 yards per reception against the Bears on Thanksgiving Thursday and he’ll get even more opportunity to dance with David Montgomery out.

TAKING: DETROIT -6.5

Lions 27, Bears 17

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (12-2) at WASHINGTON COMMANDERS (9-5)

LINE: Philadelphia by 3.5

Saquon Barkley is a little banged up, but he had almost 200 yards from scrimmage (146 rushing, 52 receiving) and two TDs when the Eagles beat the Commanders by eight in Week 11 so, even at less than full speed, he should again do plenty of damage against the 25th-ranked run D. Philly has the longest active win streak in the league and not one of the 10 victories was by fewer than four points. Eagles can not only clinch the division, but keep pace with Detroit for the top seed.

TAKING: PHILADELPHIA -3.5

Eagles 24, Commanders 20

And the rest …

HOUSTON TEXANS (9-5) at KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (13-1)

LINE: Kansas City by 3.5

It looks like Patrick Mahomes will gut his way through a high ankle sprain to play while he and the rest of the Chiefs will be motivated to hang on to that No. 1 seed. Texans have nothing at stake, as they have locked up their division and can go no higher or lower than the fourth seed. Kansas City has won four of the past five meetings by an average score of 39-27.

TAKING: KANSAS CITY -3.5

Chiefs 27, Texans 20

PITTSBURGH STEELERS (10-4) at BALTIMORE RAVENS (9-5)

LINE: Baltimore by 6.5

Looks like George Pickens (hamstring) will miss his third straight game, which will prevent the Steelers from fully exploiting Baltimore’s horrible pass defence, but T.J. Watt (ankle) have now been declared good to go. Pittsburgh has won eight of the past nine meetings, including an 18-16 just a few weeks ago, and it’s never wise to bet against Mike Tomlin as an underdog. Did I mention that Lamar Jackson is 2-5 against the Steelers, with just five TD passes against eight picks?

TAKING: PITTSBURGH +6.5

Ravens 23, Steelers 21

NEW YORK GIANTS (2-12) at ATLANTA FALCONS (7-7)

LINE: Atlanta by 8.5

Falcons have finally seen enough of Kirk Cousins and will turn to lefty Michael Penix Jr., the eighth overall pick in this year’s NFL draft. He won’t light up the skies against the Giants’ No. 7 pass defence, but Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier will run all over Big Blue’s putrid (31st ranked) run stoppers. Atlanta is still alive in the race for a playoff spot, but its defence can’t be counted on to keep Drew Lock and Malik Nabers from a back-door cover.

TAKING: NEW YORK +8.5

Falcons 24, Giants 17

TENNESSEE TITANS (3-11) at INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (6-8)

LINE: Indianapolis by 3.5

(Mason) Rudolph will lead the Titans into Indy three days before Christmas and he should have more success than Will Levis, who has won just five of 20 starts and threw three interceptions and fumbled once before being pulled in the third quarter in last week’s loss to the Bengals. Colts have a 13% chance to make the playoffs, according to the New York Times, and should stay alive here, but they turn the ball over almost as much as the Titans and shouldn’t be trusted to cover more than a field goal.

TAKING: TENNESSEE +3.5

Colts 20, Titans 17

ARIZONA CARDINALS (7-7) at CAROLINA PANTHERS (3-11)

LINE: Arizona by 4.5

Both of Arizona’s road wins this season have been by a single point, but they were against teams (Niners, Dolphins) better than Carolina. Bryce Young will be better than he was against the Cowboys pressure defence last week, when the Panthers failed to cover for the first time in six games. Cardinals stay in the hunt for first place with James Conner finding gaping holes against the league’s worst ground defence.

TAKING: CAROLINA +4.5

Cardinals 24, Panthers 20

LOS ANGELES RAMS (8-6) at NEW YORK JETS (4-10)

LINE: Los Angeles by 3.5

In his past two games, Aaron Rodgers has averaged 314 passing yards and thrown four TD passes against no interceptions, so maybe he isn’t washed up after all. But a Jets defence that was formidable before the firing of head coach Robert Salah is now like a strainer that everyone slips through. The Rams are peaking with three wins in a row and they’ll cover some serious real estate, both on the ground and via the air, at MetLife.

TAKING: LOS ANGELES -3.5

Rams 28, Jets 24

MINNESOTA VIKINGS (12-2) at SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (8-6)

LINE: Minnesota by 3

It appears Geno Smith will work through the knee injury he suffered in last week’s 30-13 loss to the Packers and he should be able to handle all the blitzes Brian Flores throws at opponents. I’d consider backing the Seahawks if Kenneth Walker III (calf) was lining up in the backfield, but with seven wins in a row (not to mention a 9-4-1 ATS record) the Vikings are establishing themselves as a legit contender in the NFC. And hey, where have the 12s gone? The Seahawks are 3-5 at home and 1-4 ATS as a home dog.

TAKING: MINNESOTA -3

Vikings 27, Seahawks 21

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (3-11) at BUFFALO BILLS (11-3)

LINE: Buffalo by 14

The Bills will score at least 30 points — they’ve done it eight outings in a row — and they’ve put up 90 in the past two games against good teams like the Rams and Lions. The only concern is that they let up a bit against the first cream puff they’ve faced since October. Still with a shot at the No. 1 seed, the likelihood is they won’t. Buffalo is 4-4-2 ATS when favoured by 14 or more points with Josh Allen under centre.

TAKING: BUFFALO -14

Bills 37, Patriots 17

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (3-11) at LAS VEGAS RAIDERS (2-12)

LINE: Las Vegas by 1

Barring a setback, Aidan O’Connell should be the Raiders quarterback and that cements this pick for us. He’s certainly no great shakes, but certainly an upgrade on Desmond Ridder. The Jaguars have the 32nd-best passing defence (see what I did there?) and the 24th-best run defence. They are also 29th best when it comes to stopping opponents on third down.

TAKING: LAS VEGAS -1

Raiders 23, Jaguars 14

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (6-8) at MIAMI DOLPHINS (6-8)

LINE: Miami by 1.5

For some reason, I thought it was Burgess Meredith who told Sylvester Stallone he “coulda been a contender” in Rocky, but I just looked it up and the line became famous when uttered by Marlon Brando in On The Waterfront. Anyway, both the Niners and Dolphins were viewed as contenders before the season started and now, save for some sort of miracle, both will miss the playoffs. Take the home team in what is basically a pick ’em. Niners have more injuries and their offence really misses Trent Williams.

TAKING: MIAMI -1.5

Dolphins 26, Niners 23

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (8-6) at DALLAS COWBOYS (6-8)

LINE: Tampa Bay by 4

The Bucs are terrible (30th) against the pass while the Cowboys are brutal (29th) against the run, so Bucky Irving/Rachaad White and CeeDee Lamb should all shine under the bright lights of Sunday Night Football. Baker Mayfield and Mike Evans combined for 159 yards and two TDs through the air in last week’s 40-17 dismantling of the Chargers and should have another big game unless Micah Parsons spoils their fun. Cooper Rush can keep it close — he has thrown eight TD passes against just one pick in his past four games — but Tampa will tighten its grip on first in the NFC South.

TAKING: TAMPA BAY -4

Buccaneers 28, Cowboys 23

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (5-9) at GREEN BAY PACKERS (10-4)

LINE: Green Bay by 14.5

The Saints have shown some jam in recent weeks, winning three of five under interim head coach Darren Rizzi, but the status of Alvin Kamara (groin adductor) and Chris Olave (concussion) is in doubt, and it looks like Spencer Rattler will be under centre. The Packers are emerging as one of the best all-around teams in the NFL and still have their eyes set on top spot in the NFC North and while the spread is tricky given the Saints’ injuries, the Packers have beaten the Seahawks and Niners by 17 or more, and they are 41-24 ATS at Lambeau in games after Dec. 1 since 2000.

TAKING: GREEN BAY -14.5

Packers 33, Saints 15

Picks records

Don Brennan

LAST WEEK: 10-6

SEASON: 111-111-2

BEST BETS LAST WEEK: 2-1

BEST BET SEASON: 24–20-1

Dan Bilicki

LAST WEEK: 8-8

SEASON: 115–107-2

BEST BEST LAST WEEK: 0-1

BEST BET SEASON: 7-8

Information in the above article is for entertainment purposes only and is not targeted to under 19 audiences. Using this information to contravene any law is prohibited. Visit the Responsible Gaming Council's Safer Play to keep gambling safe and fun.