Week 5 NFL Picks: Backing five underdogs, including the New Orleans Saints

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THE BEST BETS

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (2-2) at KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (4-0)

LINE: Kansas City by 5.5

Love this line. After scoring 91 points in winning their first two games, the Saints have lost the last two by a total of five points. Five is also the average margin of victory for Chiefs this season. Patrick Mahomes is putting up Ws but ranks 18th in passer rating, 13th in completion percentage and 11th in passing yards. Those numbers shouldn’t improve with Rashee Rice injured.

TAKING: NEW ORLEANS +5.5

Chiefs 24, Saints 23

GREEN BAY PACKERS (2-2) at LOS ANGELES RAMS (1-3)

LINE: Green Bay by 3

It took Jordan Love a half game to get going, but with 389 yards and four TD passes against the Vikings, he’s back to his old self and should feast on a Rams defence that ranks 31st in total yards allowed and 32nd against the run. This one would be a lot more fun if Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua weren’t injured.

TAKING: GREEN BAY -3

Packers 33, Rams 14

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NEW YORK GIANTS (1-3) at SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (3-1)

LINE: Seattle by 6.5

If rookie WR Malik Nabers (concussion protocol) misses this game, who’s going to carry the Giants offence? Nabers leads the league with 52 targets, which is 15 more than Daniel Jones’ next favourite option. The Seahawks recorded more first downs (38) than any losing team in NFL history against Detroit last week. They lead the league in passing yards and Geno Smith is once again on the money with a completion percentage second only to Jayden Daniels. Seahawks also have won six of the past seven meetings, the most recent by scores of 24-3 in New Jersey and 27-13 in Seattle.

TAKING: SEATTLE -6.5

Seahawks 28, Giants 13

THE REST

NEW YORK JETS (2-2) at MINNESOTA VIKINGS (4-0)

LINE: Minnesota by 2.5

Sam Darnold is playing at a MVP level as he heads across the pond to face the team that drafted him third overall in 2018 and, on the other side of the ball, the Vikings have DC Brian Flores being referred to as the assistant coach of the year. Jets will be better than they were in last week’s loss to the Broncos — Aaron Rodgers might not even hide his face with in embarrassment this week — and their pass defence will give Darnold his sternest test yet, but Vikings will enjoy the post-game tea and crumpets party more.

TAKING: MINNESOTA -2.5

Vikings 23, Jets 17

CLEVELAND BROWNS (1-3) at WASHINGTON COMMANDERS (3-1)

LINE: Washington by 3.5

Daniels has the highest completion percentage (82.1) of any quarterback EVER through four games while Deshaun Watson is still struggling to survive without his two starting tackles. Only the Saints and Bills are averaging more than the Commanders 30.3 points a game, while just five teams have a lower points per game average than Cleveland’s 16.5. Browns have a much better defence, however, and will keep it close if Myles Garrett and Jordan Hicks can overcome injuries to play.

TAKING: CLEVELAND +3.5

Commanders 23, Browns 20

BALTIMORE RAVENS (2-2) at CINCINNATI BENGALS (1-3)

LINE: Baltimore by 2.5

Derrick Henry has rushed for 350 yards and three TDs in the past two games and should steamroll a Bengals run defence that ranks 26th while allowing 145.5 yards per game. But with Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, Joe Burrow should be able to take advantage of Baltimore’s shaky corners and a pass defence that ranks 29th while giving up 257.5 yards per game.

TAKING: CINCINNATI +2.5

Bengals 26, Ravens 23

BUFFALO BILLS (3-1) at HOUSTON TEXANS (3-1)

LINE: Buffalo by 1

Texans pass ‘D’ ranks fourth with 161 yards per game allowed, which is surprising given the 34-7 pounding they took from Minnesota two weeks ago. C.J. Stroud is coming off his best game of the season and, even though Josh Allen and the Bills offence will bounce back from the shameful loss to Baltimore on national TV, the Texans have more weapons — including a guy named Stefon Diggs with a chip on his shoulder. The previous time these teams met, the Bills won 40-0 at home. This won’t be that.

TAKING: HOUSTON +1

Texans 30, Bills 27

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (2-2) at JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (0-4)

LINE: Jacksonville by 3

It’s tough to back a winless team when its coach said after last week’s loss “as coaches, we can’t go out there and make the plays.” But when Jonathan Taylor joined the opponent’s lengthy injury list, I flipped back to the Jags, even if they won’t be playing for Doug Pederson. I’d like them better if they were only giving 2.5 points, but c’est la vie.

TAKING: JACKSONVILLE -3

Jaguars 20, Colts 16

CAROLINA PANTHERS (1-3) at CHICAGO BEARS (2-2)

LINE: Chicago by 4

The Bears have won seven in a row at Soldier Field, a streak that started 50 weeks ago and includes a 16-13 win over these same Panthers. Carolina is looking like a real team again with Andy Dalton at QB, but the Bears defence is one of the most underrated units in the NFL and Caleb Williams, who had his best passer rating (106.6) last week, is showing growth.

TAKING: CHICAGO -4

Bears 27, Panthers 17

MIAMI DOLPHINS (1-3) at NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (1-3)

LINE: New England by 1

The two worst teams in the NFL? No question. Dolphins have scored one TD since Tua Tagovailoa suffered a concussion in Week 2 and are averaging a league-low 11.3 points per game. Patriots are averaging a league-second-low 13 points per game, but if Rhamondre Stevenson can hold onto the ball, he should be able to do enough damage against a team that was soundly beaten by Tennessee’s running game last week.

TAKING: NEW ENGLAND -1

Patriots 13, Dolphins 11

ARIZONA CARDINALS (1-3) at SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (2-2)

LINE: San Francisco by 7.5

George Kittle is back in the infirmary with a rib injury, but the bigger loss for the Niners is Fred Warner, who wasn’t practising this week because of a bad ankle. Cards offence has been snoozing the past two weeks, including a dismal 14-points output against a shaky Commanders defence, but they have to show up for this one or they’re headed for another poor season.

TAKING: ARIZONA +7.5

Niners 27, Cardinals 20

LAS VEGAS RAIDERS (2-2) at DENVER BRONCOS (2-2)

LINE: Denver by 2.5

Sean Payton’s team returns home following a lopsided road win in Tampa and a squeaker over the Jets in East Rutherford. The two early losses were by one score against good Seahawks and Steelers teams, so Denver’s defensive rankings against the run (third) and pass (12th) are legit. Raiders had 11 players miss Wednesday’s practice, including disgruntled star Davante Adams.

TAKING: DENVER -2.5

Broncos 20, Raiders 13

DALLAS COWBOYS (2-2) at PITTSBURGH STEELERS (3-1)

LINE: Pittsburgh by 2.5

James Daniels became the fourth Steelers OL to go on injured reserve when he suffered a season-ending Achilles tear last week, but they still helped Justin Fields to surpass the 300-passing yard mark for just the second time in his 44-game career. With Micah Parsons expected to join Demarcus Lawrence on the sidelined-list, Fields will have time to get after the Cowboys 26th-ranked pass defence. And watch out Dak Prescott, T.J Watts is coming off his first sack-less game of the season.

TAKING: PITTSBURGH -2.5

Steelers 21, Cowboys 17

AFTER WEEK 4

Don Brennan

LAST WEEK: 11-5

SEASON: 32-31-1

BEST BET LAST WEEK: 1-2

BEST BET SEASON: 4–7-1

Dan Bilicki

LAST WEEK: 12-4

SEASON: 29-34-1

BEST BEST LAST WEEK: 1-0

BEST BET SEASON: 3-1

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