Trump's threatened trade war doubles PC lead in Ontario election race: Poll
Ford's 12-point lead over Crombie Liberals represents his party's highest approval ratings in a year
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OTTAWA — President Donald Trump’s threatened tariffs have given the Doug Ford PCs their highest approval ratings in nearly a year, new polling suggests.
The Liaison Strategies poll, commissioned by the National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada, found the Ontario Progressive Conservatives doubled their lead over the previous week, pulling a 43% approval rating among decided and leaning voters, compared to 31% for Bonnie Crombie’s Liberals, between Jan. 31 and Feb. 1.
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The PCs were polling at 39% compared to the Liberals’ 33% the week previous, the closest the two parties have come in a year.
“Ford focused his campaign on tariffs and the trade war from the very start and, for now, that is paying dividends with Ontarians,” said David Valentin, principal at Liaison Strategies.
Valentin said the Ontario Liberals have two bright spots — their lead in the City of Toronto and their dead heat in the province’s north.
Indeed, the 416 area remains the Liberals’ trusty stronghold, where they’re pulling 33% support compared to the PCs’ 27%.
Toronto’s undecided vote, currently sitting at a quarter of respondents, could still play a factor.
Likewise, the province’s undecided vote dwells around the same range across all locations and demographics — PC support for the ever-important 18-34 age range currently sits at 29%, just two points ahead of that cohort’s undecided vote.
Fortunes for the Marit Stiles’ NDP, however, continue to slide.
“There is no good news in this report for the Ontario NDP, who continue to slide and are now down to 16%,” Valentin said.
“In south-central Ontario, Hamilton and Niagara, they are trailing the PCs by 13 points, despite the fact they have been first or a close second all throughout the year.”
NDP support has seen a precipitous decline since their late-summer high of 23%, with this week’s 16% representing their lowest ratings in a year.
Conducted Jan. 31-Feb. 1, the poll of 1,274 Ontario voters is considered accurate within 2.7%, 19 times out of 20.
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