LILLEY: What to expect as Mark Carney puts his government together

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A growing but still trimmed down cabinet and a government that will operate like it has a majority. That’s what we can expect in Ottawa as Mark Carney’s Liberal government takes shape.

The new cabinet will be sworn in on Tuesday at Rideau Hall and while his previous cabinet has only been sworn in for less than two months, we should expect some changes.

When his cabinet was sworn in on March 24, Carney had shrunk Justin Trudeau’s previous high of 40 members to just 24. Many positions were eliminated, which irritated some activists and lobby groups upset that roles such as a minister for women’s affairs or official languages were no longer there.

We could see some of those positions return on Tuesday with an enlarged cabinet albeit with a different structure. Carney is said to be considering using the position of minister of state for some roles, effectively a junior cabinet minister.

The use of the minister of state title has ebbed and flowed over the years depending on the prime minister of the day. While Stephen Harper, Paul Martin, Brian Mulroney and Pierre Trudeau all used the position, other governments such as those led by Jean Chretien and Justin Trudeau preferred full ministers.

That would leave Carney with a smaller team of senior ministers.

Will that core group of advisors include new faces? Quite possibly given that Carney has some star candidates to place such as former Vancouver mayor Gregor Robertson.

There are also two high-profile candidates for finance minister. Carlos Leitão won the riding of Marc-Aurèle-Fortin north of Montreal and was previously Quebec’s finance minister from 2014 to 2018, while Tim Hodgson, who won Markham-Thornhill, has an extensive finance background including having worked at Goldman Sachs and as an advisor to Carney when he was Bank of Canada governor.

As for how the Carney Liberals will attempt to govern in the House, it appears they will have an easier time than originally thought. The Liberals effectively have a majority government at this point even without getting to 172 seats in the Commons.

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On Saturday, a judicial recount found the Liberals won the riding of Terrebonne by one vote as opposed to the 44-vote margin in favour of the Bloc Quebecois on election night. There are three other recounts underway that could alter final results, but in essence, the Liberals can operate as if they have that majority.

The party currently controls 170 seats, and they can always rely on the support of Green MP Elizabeth May, who operates as if she’s a wholly owned subsidiary of the Liberal Party. That puts the party at 171 votes, barring any recount changes, which is enough to pass legislation.

It’s likely that the Liberals will back a Conservative or New Democrat for Speaker which would neutralize an opposition vote, making it easier for them to pass bills. There’s lots of talk about the Liberals trying to poach a New Democrat MP or two to sit as Liberals, but, in reality, they may not have to.

With just 143 seats, the Conservatives would need the support of both the Bloc Quebecois with their 22 seats and the NDP with their seven seats to bring the government down. The Bloc have already indicated that they are in no rush for another election and the NDP are broke and leaderless at the moment and won’t be supporting any non-confidence votes.

The last Parliament was a minority government, just like this one, and it lasted for three years and two months. Given the makeup of this Parliament, we should probably expect and brace for a longer, rather than shorter, life for this one.

blilley@postmedia.com