EDITORIAL: Mark Carney’s fun with deficit numbers

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Taxpayers should be suspicious of so-called “fully costed” campaign platforms during elections. 

Former Liberal prime minister Justin Trudeau’s “fully costed” platform in the 2015 election which brought him to power, predicted federal deficits over the next four years — from 2016 to 2019, the year before the pandemic hit — would total $24.1 billion 

But Trudeau’s actual deficits from 2015 to 2019 totalled $91.4 billion — almost 180% higher than his “fully costed” estimate in 2015. 

In that context, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre’s platform released on Tuesday, unlike Liberal Leader Mark Carney’s released on Saturday, didn’t resort to accounting tricks to minimize the deficits he said a Conservative government would run over the next four years. 

Poilievre estimated them at $31.4 billion in the 2025-26 fiscal year which began on April 1, $31.5 billion in 2026-27, $23.6 billion in 2027-28 and $14.2 billion in 2028-29. 

He said his 2028-29 deficit will be 70% lower than Carney’s for that year and he will save Canadian taxpayers almost $125 billion in deficit spending over the next four years compared to Carney. 

In his platform, Carney predicts deficits of $9.2 billion in 2025-26, $9.1 billion in 2026-27, $8.6 billion in 2027-28 and a $222.4 million surplus in 2028-29. 

But that’s only counting the operating deficits he predicts his government would run up. 

It doesn’t include deficits related to capital spending for public infrastructure, which are listed as if they were assets and not costs. 

Those deficits, which must be paid by Canadian taxpayers, are listed separately as $53.1 billion in 2025-26, $50.1 billion in 2026-27, $46.2 billion in 2027-28 and $48 billion in 2028-29. 

What that means is that Carney isn’t predicting a $9.2-billion deficit in 2025-26, but a $62.3-billion deficit. 

His predicted 2026-27 deficit of $9.1 billion is actually $59.9 billion, his predicted 2027-28 deficit of $8.6 billion is actually $54.8 billion and his predicted $222.4 million surplus in 2028-29 is actually a $47.8-billion deficit. 

The Liberals say this new way they are presenting the government’s deficit figures is the same as some other governments do. 

However, that’s not the way the Canadian government has done it up to now.  

And it won’t change the costs federal taxpayers will face in paying for those deficits.