GUNTER: Carney's deference to Quebec undercuts LNG announcement
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The Carney government’s trade policy so far makes for good political theatre, but is it good for the economy? Is it enough?
Yes and no.
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The Carney Liberals are more likely to grow Canada’s economy than the Trudeau Liberals did, but that’s a very low bar. The lowest.
Besides, the Carney government is still Liberal. They are unlikely to get beyond their Liberal-ness to help the country become an energy superpower because they will be unable to overcome their obsessions with the environment, equity, reconciliation and regional favouritism.
Prime Minister Mark Carney’s new pact with Germany to provide critical minerals and more energy is good for the national economy. However, it is unlikely to achieve its full potential because of Liberal deference to Quebec.
Canada is to begin shipping liquified natural gas LNG to Germany. That is in marked contrast with the Trudeau government that declared there was “no business case” for such trade.
However, to get the most LNG to Europe in the shortest amount of time, building a pipeline to the East Coast makes the most sense.
Instead, just days after Carney announced his deal with Germany, he hinted billions would be spent upgrading the Port of Churchill in Manitoba to take LNG shipments.
If it makes the most sense to ship LNG to Europe from New Brunswick or Nova Scotia, why would the Liberals want to use a northern Manitoba port that is only open four months a year (it’s clogged with ice the rest of the time) and to send LNG ships on a riskier journey around northern Quebec, which takes nearly two weeks longer?
Because Quebec voters don’t like pipelines.
To be an energy superpower, Canada would need a pipeline or two to the East Coast. Instead the Liberals are suggesting a much more politically expedient route.
It’s similar with our elbows up, elbows down approach to trade with the United States. Canada should have followed the lead of Alberta Premier Danielle Smith from the start, as opposed to the confrontational strategy of Ontario Premier Doug Ford. Carney’s current conciliatory stance is closer to the one Smith has advocated all along — make nice with U.S. President Donald Trump’s White House, within reason.
Instead, in order to get elected, the Liberals were all elbows up. Now they’re elbows down, cancelling reciprocal tariffs they themselves imposed on a wide range of goods imported from the United States.
Canadians won’t be happy with Carney’s removal of tit-for-tat tariffs, especially before the Trump administration has made any goodwill reductions in its own punitive tariffs against Canadian goods.
In an internal report prepared for the Department of Foreign Affairs, and uncovered by the online news service Blacklock’s Reporter, Canadians are four times more likely than Americans to support their country’s imposition of tariffs on the other. Moreover, 51 per cent of Americans are opposed to any tariffs on Canada, while just 12 per cent of Canadians are in favour of removing the reciprocal tariffs we imposed in response to Trump’s trade war and verbal assaults.
I’m prepared to give the government the benefit of the doubt for a short while. Sometimes such concessions are needed to get the other side to budge — especially when the other side is led by an irrational madman.
Still, a deal must be done, though. We cannot get by without taking advantage of the U.S. economy. Even if Carney’s overtures to other countries prove successful, Canada will still have to do two-thirds to three-quarters of its trade with our southern neighbour. They are the largest economy in the world and parked conveniently next door, not to mention how integrated our transportation infrastructure is.
My major concern is that the Carney Liberals seem to be more concerned by short-term political expedience than a coherent, overall trade strategy. So, if they see a political advantage in provoking the Americans, they’ll take it.
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