Will bat-flip Blue Jays legend Jose Bautista be one and done on Baseball Hall of Fame ballot?

It was a chance to celebrate. A weekend of being feted on the Blue Jays’ Level of Excellence. A Hall of Fame kind of party with family, friends and fans, without any real Hall of Fame connection.

That may be the best it ever gets for Bautista, the one-time franchise face, the difference-maker — although the suspicion is that one day in the not too distant future he will be inducted into the Canadian Baseball Hall of Fame in St. Marys, Ont.

The ballot for the Baseball Hall of Fame in Cooperstown came out the other day and this is the first time Bautista’s name has appeared. It may be also the last time.

He could be one and done the way other former Blue Jays have been too easily dismissed.

Carlos Delgado, who hit 129 more home runs than Bautista and knocked in 537 more runs, was on the Baseball Hall ballot for only one year. He didn’t receive the 5% of voting necessary to maintain his candidacy, which was a mistake then and remains a voters mistake today.

Joe Carter, who had the moment of all moments, was a one-ballot Hall of Fame candidate also. He remains unhappy about that. His numbers, in a sport of numbers, were nowhere near Delgado’s stats — which were quite similar to those of former Blue Jay Fred McGriff, who was elected last year by the Veterans Committee. While there is some sentiment today that Delgado should have garnered more support for his Hall candidacy — and I believe he will be considered by the second-chance voters — there doesn’t appear to be similar sentiment for Carter.

The difficulty in making a case for Bautista begins with how his career exploded somewhat late and, while he played in 15 big league seasons, really, only five of them were Hall of Fame possibilities and just three of those were over-the-top exceptional.

Bautista came from nowhere to lead all of baseball in home runs in 2010. That was supposed to be a fluke. He probably should have won the MVP that year but it went to Josh Hamilton, instead. He then followed that up by leading the American League in homers, RBIs and OPS in 2011. Pitcher Justin Verlander was voted MVP that year.

Bautista’s last spectacular season was 2015, the Blue Jays most recent spectacular season.  He hit 40 homers, knocked in more than 100, hit the bat-flip home run that he will be forever remembered for in the playoff series against Texas. And in the Jays’ final game of that disappointing American League Championship Series against Kansas City, Bautista hit two more home runs.

He was never quite the same after that. But he strung together five seasons of excellence over six years, five of them dominant, all of them with presence and moments, with arrogance and attitude being a factor in his superb play at the plate and in the field.

But the excellence probably didn’t last long enough for Cooperstown voters, who will fill out their ballots between now and the end of December. Among the numbers that work against Bautista is his career WAR — wins above replacement number, which ranks 641st in baseball history.

The number is 36.7.

That’s lower than Jesse Barfield or Tony Fernandez. That’s 28 points below Joey Votto, who should get into the Hall one day. That’s more than 30 points behind the greatest Blue Jay in history, Roberto Alomar, and almost as many points behind pitcher Luis Tiant, who already has done his 10 years on the Hall of Fame ballot without getting elected.

There are 26 candidates on this year’s Hall of Fame ballot and voters can choose anywhere from zero candidates to 10 when filling out their ballots. Rarely do ballots look the same. Sometimes a first-year candidate, such as Bautista, will get votes, not because the voters necessarily believe they belong, but they are more like respect votes. Bautista had a great career. He helped change a team.

If I have an extra spot on my ballot, then maybe I’ll vote for this guy or that guy — because no one wants to get dropped first time around. Mark Buehrle has lasted a few years on the ballot because of the respect votes.

There are 12 first-year candidates on the Hall of Fame ballot. The one sure thing is Adrian Beltre, He has a WAR of 93.5. He hit 477 home runs and 1,707 RBIs and played a terrific third base. He’s pretty much a slam dunk this year.

The best first-year candidate after him is Joe Mauer, the catcher who won the batting title three times when that crown meant more than it does now.

Returning on the ballot also are the performance-enhanced candidates, Alex Rodriguez and Manny Ramirez, who would be sure things if not for their choice of drugs.

This year Beltre will get in, maybe alongside Carlos Beltran and maybe Andruw Jones or Todd Helton. None of them, Beltre aside, are exceptional candidates. At his best, Jose Bautista was more dominant than any of them except Beltran.

But that won’t necessarily count here. Emotion won’t count. Excitement won’t count. Bat flips won’t count. Hard numbers will.

The numbers indicate Bautista has no chance of being elected to the Hall of Fame. The fight here may be just to make it to a second year on the ballot.

ssimmons@postmedia.com
X; @simmonssteve